Ubushakashatsi bushya bwakozwe na Cornwall Insight busanga imirasire y'izuba nini ya gride yishyura 10-20% yikiguzi cyo gutanga serivisi zinyongera ku isoko ry’amashanyarazi, nubwo kugeza ubu zitanga ingufu zingana na 3% muri sisitemu.
Ntibyoroshye kuba icyatsi.Imirasire y'izubabahura ningaruka nyinshi zo kugaruka kubushoramari - FCAS muribo.
Kugabanya, gutinda kw'ihuza, gutakaza igihombo, sisitemu yo gukwirakwiza amashanyarazi adahagije, icyuho gikomeje gukorwa na politiki y’ingufu za politiki - urutonde rwibitekerezo hamwe n’abashobora gutesha agaciro umurongo wanyuma w’iterambere ry’izuba uragenda waguka.Ibiharuro bishya byakozwe n'abasesenguzi b'ingufu Cornwall Insight ubu basanze imirasire y'izuba itagabanije ku buryo butagereranywa igiciro cyiyongera cyo gutanga serivisi zifasha kugenzura inshuro nyinshi (FCAS) ku isoko ry’amashanyarazi (NEM).
Cornwall Insight ivuga ko imirasire y'izuba yishyura hagati ya 10% na 20% by'amabwiriza yose agenga ibiciro bya FCAS mu kwezi kumwe, iyo kuri iki cyiciro bitanga ingufu zingana na 3% gusa zikomoka muri NEM.Ugereranije, imirima y’umuyaga yatanze ingufu zingana na 9% muri NEM mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2019-20 (FY20), kandi umubare wabo w’amafaranga yishyurwa FCAS wageze ku 10% byamafaranga yatanzwe.
Ikintu cya "causer yishura" bivuga uburyo generator iyo ari yo yose itandukiriye igipimo cyayo kugirango igere ku ntego zabo zoherejwe kuri buri gihe cyo kohereza.
Ben Cerini, Umujyanama mukuru muri Cornwall Insight yo muri Ositaraliya, agira ati: “Uburyo bushya bwo gutekereza ku bintu bishobora kuvugururwa ni inshingano zishingiye ku kugena ibiciro bya FCAS bitera inyungu mu mishinga y’ingufu zishobora kubaho ndetse n’ejo hazaza.”
Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe n’uru ruganda bwerekanye ko nyirabayazana wa FCAS yishyura amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ikoresha ingufu zingana na $ 2,368 kuri megawatt buri mwaka, cyangwa hafi $ 1.55 / MWh, nubwo ibi bitandukanye mu turere twa NEM, aho imirasire y'izuba ya Queensland ifite impamvu nyinshi zishyura ibintu muri FY20 kurusha izo yabyaye mu zindi ntara.
Cerini agira ati: “Kuva mu 2018, amabwiriza ya FCAS yagiye ahinduka hagati ya miliyoni 10- $ 40 mu gihembwe.Q2 yo mu 2020 yari igihe gito ugereranije no kugereranya vuba aha, kuri miliyoni 15 z'amadolari hamwe n'ibihembwe bitatu bishize mbere yuko miliyoni zirenga 35 z'amadorari mu gihembwe. ”
Guhangayikishwa no gutandukana bifata intera ndende
Kohereza FCAS yemerera Isoko ry’ingufu za Ositaraliya (AEMO) gucunga gutandukana mubisekuru cyangwa imitwaro.Abaterankunga nyamukuru mu biciro byinshi bya FCAS bya Q1 muri uyu mwaka ni ibintu bitatu bitunguranye "gutandukana": mugihe imirongo myinshi yohereza mu majyepfo ya NSW yagabanutse biturutse ku nkongi y'umuriro, itandukanya amajyaruguru n'uturere two mu majyepfo ya NEM ku ya 4 Mutarama;gutandukana bihenze cyane, mugihe Australiya yepfo na Victoria birwa muminsi 18 nyuma yumuyaga wamugaye kumurongo wogukwirakwiza ku ya 31 Mutarama;no gutandukanya Australiya yepfo n’iburengerazuba bwa Victoria ya Mortlake y’amashanyarazi na NEM ku ya 2 Werurwe.
Iyo NEM ikora nka sisitemu ihujwe FCAS irashobora gukomoka muri gride yose, bigatuma AEMO ihamagarira ibintu bihendutse kubitanga nka generator, bateri n'imizigo.Mugihe cyibikorwa byo gutandukana, FCAS igomba gukomoka mubutaka, naho mugihe cyo gutandukana kwiminsi 18 SA na Victoria, byahujwe no kongera ibicuruzwa biva mumashanyarazi.
Ingaruka zabyo, sisitemu ya NEM muri Q1 yari miliyoni 310 z'amadolari, muri yo miliyoni 277 z'amadolari y’Amerika zashizwe muri FCAS yari ikeneye kubungabunga umutekano wa gride muri ibi bihe bidasanzwe.
Kugaruka kuri sisitemu isanzwe itwara miliyoni 63 z'amadolari muri Q2, muri yo FCAS ikaba yarinjije miliyoni 45 z'amadolari, "byatewe ahanini no kutabaho kw'ibikorwa bikomeye byo gutandukanya amashanyarazi", nk'uko AEMO yabivuze muri Q2 2020Igihembwe Ingufu Ingufuraporo.
Imirasire y'izuba nini igabanya ibiciro by'amashanyarazi menshi
Muri icyo gihe, Q2 2020 yabonye impuzandengo y’ibicuruzwa by’amashanyarazi mu karere bigera ku rwego rwo hasi kuva mu 2015;na 48-68% munsi ugereranije nuko byari bimeze muri Q2 2019. AEMO yashyize ahagaragara ibintu byagize uruhare mu kugabanya ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa byinshi: “ibiciro bya gaze n’amakara, kugabanya inzitizi z’amakara ku musozi wa Piper, kongera imvura (n’umusaruro wa hydro), n’ibishya itangwa rishya ”.
Imiyoboro ihindagurika y’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu (umuyaga nizuba) yiyongereyeho MW 454 muri Q2 2020, bingana na 13% byivangwa n’ibicuruzwa, bivuye kuri 10% muri Q2 2019.
Ingufu zihenze zidasubirwaho zizongera gusa uruhare rwazo mukugabanya ibiciro byingufu nyinshi;hamwe nurubuga rwakwirakwijwe kandi rukomezwa rwoguhuza imiyoboro, hamwe namategeko yavuguruwe agenga guhuza bateri muri NEM, fata urufunguzo rwo kwemeza uburyo bwo kubona FCAS igiciro cyapiganwa nkuko bikenewe.
Hagati aho, Cerini avuga ko abashoramari n'abashoramari bakurikiranira hafi ingaruka zose zishobora kwiyongera ku giciro cy'umushinga: “Mu gihe ibiciro byinshi byagabanutse, igihe cyo kugura amashanyarazi cyagabanutse, kandi n'impamvu z'igihombo zagiye zihinduka.”
Cornwall Insight yatangaje ko ifite intego yo gutanga ibiciro bya FCAS guhera muri Nzeri 2020, nubwo ibintu byabaye byatumye FCAS izamuka muri Q1 biragoye kubiteganya.
Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, Cerini agira ati: "Ubu imyenda ya FCAS iri kuri gahunda yo gukorana umwete."
Igihe cyo kohereza: Kanama-23-2020