Ibibazo bituruka ku mirasire y'izuba byatangiye umwaka ushize hamwe n’ibiciro biri hejuru ndetse n’ibura rya polysilicon bikomeje kugeza mu 2022. Ariko tumaze kubona itandukaniro rikomeye n’ibyavuzwe mbere ko ibiciro bizagabanuka buhoro buhoro buri gihembwe uyu mwaka.Alan Tu ya PV Infolink ikora ubushakashatsi ku isoko ryizuba kandi itanga ubushishozi.
PV InfoLink imishinga yisi PV module isaba kugera kuri 223 GW uyumwaka, hamwe nibiteganijwe neza 248 GW.Ubushobozi bwo kwishyiriraho buteganijwe kugera kuri 1 TW umwaka urangiye.
Ubushinwa buracyiganje kuri PV.Politiki ishingiye kuri 80 GW isabwa module izamura iterambere ryisoko ryizuba.Ku mwanya wa kabiri ni isoko ry’iburayi, ririmo gukora mu kwihutisha iterambere ry’ibinyabuzima kugira ngo ryirukane gaze gasanzwe y’Uburusiya.Biteganijwe ko Uburayi buzabona 49 GW ya module isabwa muri uyu mwaka.
Isoko rya gatatu rinini cyane, Amerika, ryabonye ibicuruzwa n'ibisabwa bitandukanye kuva umwaka ushize.Guhungabanywa nicyemezo cyo guhagarika kurekura (WRO), gutanga ntibishobora guhaza ibyifuzo.Byongeye kandi, iperereza ryerekeye kurwanya ibizunguruka mu majyepfo y’amajyepfo ya Aziya muri uyu mwaka ritera kutamenya neza niba utugari n’amasoko bitangwa ku bicuruzwa by’Amerika kandi byiyongera ku gipimo gito cyo gukoresha muri Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Amajyepfo mu gihe ingaruka za WRO.
Kubera iyo mpamvu, isoko ryo muri Amerika rizagabanuka kubisabwa muri uyu mwaka;module isabwa izaguma kuri 26 GW yumwaka ushize cyangwa munsi.Amasoko atatu manini hamwe azatanga umusanzu hafi 70%.
Ibisabwa mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2022 byagumye kuri GW 50, nubwo ibiciro byakomeje kuba byinshi.Mu Bushinwa, imishinga yasubitswe kuva umwaka ushize yaratangiye.Mugihe imishinga yashizwe kubutaka yasubitswe kubera ibiciro bya module mugihe gito, kandi ibyifuzo byimishinga yagabanijwe-byakomeje kubera ibiciro biri hasi.Ku masoko yo hanze y’Ubushinwa, Ubuhinde bwabonye ibarura rikomeye mbere yo gushyiraho umusoro w’ibanze (BCD) ku ya 1 Mata, mu gihembwe cya mbere 4 GW kugeza kuri 5 GW.Icyifuzo gihamye cyakomeje muri Amerika, mugihe Uburayi bwabonye imbaraga zirenze izari ziteganijwe hamwe n’ibisabwa bikomeye kandi byashyizweho umukono.Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi ku biciro biri hejuru nawo wariyongereye.
Muri rusange, icyifuzo mu gihembwe cya kabiri gishobora guterwa n’ibisekuru byagabanijwe ndetse n’imishinga imwe n'imwe ifasha mu Bushinwa, mu gihe ibarura rikomeye ry’i Burayi ryagaragaye mu gihe cy’ingufu zihuse, hamwe n’ibisabwa bikomoka mu karere ka Aziya-Pasifika.Ku rundi ruhande, Amerika n'Ubuhinde, biteganijwe ko umubare w'abantu ugenda ugabanuka, bitewe n'iperereza rirwanya izenguruka ndetse n'ibiciro biri hejuru ya BCD.Nyamara, ibisabwa mu turere twose hamwe hamwe 52 GW, hejuru cyane ugereranije nigihembwe cya mbere.
Urwego rwibiciro biriho ubu, Ubushinwa bwijejwe ko bwashyizweho bizatuma ibarura riva mu mishinga minini y’ingirakamaro mu gihembwe cya gatatu n'icya kane, mu gihe imishinga yatanzwe izakomeza.Kuruhande rwinyuma, isoko ryubushinwa rizakomeza gukoresha ingano nini ya module.
Icyerekezo cy'isoko ryo muri Amerika kizakomeza guhishwa kugeza igihe ibisubizo by'iperereza ryo kurwanya ibidukikije bizashyirwa ahagaragara mu mpera za Kanama.Uburayi bukomeje kubona ibyifuzo byinshi, nta bihe biri hejuru cyangwa bike mu mwaka.
Muri rusange, ibisabwa mugice cya kabiri cyumwaka bizarenga ibyo mugice cya mbere.PV Infolink ivuga ko kwiyongera buhoro buhoro mugihe, bikagera ku mpinga mugihembwe cya kane.
Ibura rya polysilicon
Nkuko bigaragara ku gishushanyo (ibumoso), itangwa rya polysilicon ryateye imbere kuva umwaka ushize kandi birashoboka ko ryuzuza abakoresha.Nyamara, InfoLink iteganya ko itangwa rya polysilicon rizakomeza kuba rito kubera ibintu bikurikira: Icya mbere, bizatwara amezi agera kuri atandatu kugirango imirongo mishya itangwe igere ku bushobozi bwuzuye, bivuze ko umusaruro ari muto.Icya kabiri, igihe cyafashwe kubushobozi bushya bwo kuza kumurongo kiratandukanye mubakora, hamwe nubushobozi bwiyongera buhoro buhoro mugihembwe cya mbere nicyakabiri, hanyuma bikiyongera cyane mugihembwe cya gatatu nicya kane.Ubwanyuma, nubwo umusaruro wa polysilicon ukomeje, Covid-19 yongeye kwiyongera mubushinwa byahagaritse itangwa ryayo, bituma idashobora guhaza ibyifuzo byigice cya wafer gifite ubushobozi bunini.
Ibikoresho bito hamwe na BOM bigenda byerekana niba ibiciro bya module bizakomeza kwiyongera.Kimwe na polysilicon, bisa nkaho ingano y’ibicuruzwa bya EVA ishobora guhaza ibyifuzo by’umurenge wa module muri uyu mwaka, ariko gufata neza ibikoresho n’icyorezo bizatuma umubano utangwa n’ibisabwa mu gihe gito.
Ibiciro byo gutanga amasoko biteganijwe ko bizakomeza kuzamuka kandi ntibizagabanuka kugeza umwaka urangiye, mugihe ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora polysilicon buje kumurongo.Umwaka utaha, urwego rwose rutanga isoko rushobora kwizera ko ruzakira ubuzima bwiza, bigatuma abakora module hamwe nabatanga sisitemu bahumeka neza.Kubwamahirwe, gutandukanya impuzandengo yibiciro biri hejuru nibisabwa bikomeje kuba ingingo nyamukuru yo kuganirwaho muri 2022.
Ibyerekeye umwanditsi
Alan Tu numufasha wubushakashatsi muri PV InfoLink.Yibanze kuri politiki yigihugu no gusesengura ibyifuzo, gushyigikira ikusanyamakuru rya PV kuri buri gihembwe no gukora iperereza ku isesengura ry’akarere.Afite kandi uruhare mu bushakashatsi bwibiciro nubushobozi bwo kubyaza umusaruro igice cyakagari, atanga amakuru yukuri ku isoko.PV InfoLink itanga isoko yizuba rya PV yibanda kumurongo wa PV.Isosiyete itanga ibisobanuro nyabyo, ubushishozi bwisoko rya PV, hamwe nisoko ryisoko rya PV kwisi yose.Itanga kandi inama zumwuga zifasha ibigo gukomeza imbere yipiganwa kumasoko.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-05-2022