Isubiramo ry'ingufu zisubirwamo ku isi 2020

Mu rwego rwo guhangana n’ibihe bidasanzwe bituruka ku cyorezo cya coronavirus, isuzuma ngarukamwaka rya IEA Global Energy Review ryaguye ubwirinzi bwaryo kugira ngo hakorwe isesengura nyaryo ry’ibyabaye kugeza ubu mu 2020 ndetse n’icyerekezo gishoboka mu gihe gisigaye cy'umwaka.

Usibye gusuzuma ingufu za 2019 na CO2 ziva mu bicanwa n’ibihugu, kuri iki gice cy’isuzuma ry’ingufu ku Isi twakurikiranye imikoreshereze y’ingufu n’ibihugu na lisansi mu mezi atatu ashize kandi rimwe na rimwe - nk’amashanyarazi - mu gihe nyacyo.Gukurikirana bimwe bizakomeza buri cyumweru.

Kutamenya neza ubuzima rusange, ubukungu bityo ingufu mu myaka ya 2020 ntizigeze zibaho.Iri sesengura rero ntirisobanura gusa inzira ishoboka yo gukoresha ingufu n’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere muri 2020 ariko inagaragaza ibintu byinshi bishobora kuganisha ku musaruro utandukanye.Dukuramo amasomo y'ingenzi yukuntu twakemura iki kibazo cyikinyejana.

Icyorezo cya Covid-19 kiri hejuru yikibazo cyubuzima bwisi yose.Kugeza ku ya 28 Mata, hari miliyoni 3 zemejwe kandi hapfa abantu barenga 200 000 bazize iyo ndwara.Kubera imbaraga zashyizweho zo kugabanya ikwirakwizwa rya virusi, umugabane w’ikoreshwa ry’ingufu zagaragajwe n’ingamba zo gukumira wavuye kuri 5% hagati muri Werurwe ugera kuri 50% hagati muri Mata.Ibihugu byinshi by’Uburayi na Amerika byatangaje ko biteze gufungura ibice by’ubukungu muri Gicurasi, bityo Mata ishobora kuba ukwezi kwibasiwe cyane.

Usibye ingaruka zihuse ku buzima, ikibazo kiriho gifite ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw’isi, gukoresha ingufu n’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.Isesengura ryamakuru ya buri munsi kugeza hagati muri Mata ryerekana ko ibihugu bifunze byuzuye bigenda bigabanuka ku kigereranyo cya 25% by’ingufu zikenerwa mu cyumweru naho ibihugu bifunga igice bikagabanuka 18%.Amakuru ya buri munsi yakusanyirijwe mu bihugu 30 kugeza ku ya 14 Mata, agaragaza hejuru ya bibiri bya gatatu by’ingufu zikenerwa ku isi, byerekana ko kwiheba bikenerwa bitewe n’igihe ndetse n’uburemere bwo gufunga.

Ingufu zikenerwa ku isi zagabanutseho 3,8% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2020, ingaruka nyinshi zagaragaye muri Werurwe kuko ingamba zo gufunga zashyizwe mu bikorwa mu Burayi, Amerika y'Amajyaruguru n'ahandi.

• Ku isi hose amakara yibasiwe cyane, yagabanutseho hafi 8% ugereranije n’igihembwe cya mbere cya 2019. Impamvu eshatu zahujwe no gusobanura iri gabanuka.Ubushinwa - ubukungu bushingiye ku makara - nicyo gihugu cyibasiwe cyane na Covid - 19 mu gihembwe cya mbere;gaze ihendutse no gukomeza kwiyongera kubishobora kuvugururwa ahandi bigoye amakara;n'ikirere cyoroheje nacyo cyafashe ikoreshwa ry'amakara.
• Ibikenerwa na peteroli na byo byibasiwe cyane, bigabanuka hafi 5% mu gihembwe cya mbere, ahanini byatewe no kugabanya umuvuduko w’indege n’indege, bingana na 60% by’ibikenerwa na peteroli ku isi.Mu mpera za Werurwe, ibikorwa byo gutwara abantu ku mihanda ku isi byari hafi 50% munsi yikigereranyo cya 2019 naho indege 60% munsi.
• Ingaruka z'icyorezo ku cyifuzo cya gaze zari nyinshi, hafi 2%, kubera ko ubukungu bushingiye kuri gaze butagize ingaruka zikomeye mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2020.
• Kuvugurura nibyo soko yonyine yashyizeho ubwiyongere bwibisabwa, biterwa nubushobozi bunini bwashyizweho hamwe no kohereza mbere.
• Amashanyarazi yagabanutse cyane bitewe ningamba zo gufunga, hamwe n'ingaruka zo gukomanga ku mashanyarazi.Amashanyarazi akenewe yagabanutseho 20% cyangwa arenga mu gihe cyo gufunga burundu mu bihugu byinshi, kubera ko ibyifuzo by’imiturire biruta kure cyane kugabanya ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi n’inganda.Ibyumweru, imiterere yibisabwa yasaga niyicyumweru kirekire.Kugabanya ibyifuzo byavanyeho umugabane w’ibishobora kuvugururwa mu gutanga amashanyarazi, kubera ko umusaruro wabo ahanini utabangamiwe n’ibisabwa.Ibisabwa byagabanutse ku yandi masoko yose y’amashanyarazi, harimo amakara, gaze n’ingufu za kirimbuzi.

Urebye umwaka wose, turasesengura ibintu byerekana ingaruka ziterwa ningaruka z’ubukungu bwifashe nabi ku isi yose bitewe n’amezi menshi abuza kugenda n’ibikorwa by’imibereho n’ubukungu.Muri iki gihe, gukira kuva mu burebure bw’ubukungu bwifashe nabi buhoro buhoro kandi biherekejwe n’igihombo kinini gihoraho mu bikorwa by’ubukungu, nubwo politiki y’ubukungu yashyizweho.

Igisubizo cyibi bintu ni uko amasezerano yingufu zisabwa 6%, nini cyane mumyaka 70 ukurikije ijanisha kandi nini nini mubihe byose.Ingaruka za Covid - 19 ku isabwa ry'ingufu muri 2020 zaba zirenze inshuro zirindwi ingaruka z’ihungabana ry’imari ryo mu 2008 ku isabwa ry’ingufu ku isi.

Ibicanwa byose bizagira ingaruka:

• Ibikenerwa na peteroli birashobora kugabanukaho 9%, cyangwa 9 mb / d ugereranije mugihe cyumwaka, bigasubiza ikoreshwa rya peteroli kurwego rwa 2012.
• Amakara ashobora kugabanukaho 8%, igice kinini kuko amashanyarazi azaba hafi 5% mugihe cyumwaka.Kugarura amakara akenewe mu nganda no kubyara amashanyarazi mu Bushinwa bishobora kugabanya igabanuka rikabije ahandi.
• Umwuka wa gazi urashobora kugabanuka cyane mumwaka wose ugereranije nigihembwe cya mbere, hamwe no kugabanuka kwingufu zikoreshwa ninganda.
• Amashanyarazi ya kirimbuzi nayo yagabanuka bitewe n’amashanyarazi make.
• Ibisabwa bivugururwa byitezwe ko byiyongera kubera amafaranga make yo gukora no kubona uburyo bwinshi bwo gukoresha amashanyarazi.Ubwiyongere bwa vuba mubushobozi, imishinga mishya izaza kumurongo muri 2020, nayo yazamura umusaruro.

Mu kigereranyo cyacu cyo muri 2020, ingufu z'amashanyarazi ku isi zigabanukaho 5%, hamwe no kugabanuka kwa 10% mu turere tumwe na tumwe.Inkomoko ya karubone nkeya iruta kure iyakoreshwa n’amakara ku isi yose, ikagura icyerekezo cyashyizweho muri 2019.

Biteganijwe ko imyuka ihumanya ikirere ya CO2 ku isi igabanukaho 8%, cyangwa gigatonnes hafi 2,6 (Gt), kugeza ku myaka 10 ishize.Uku kugabanuka kwumwaka-mwaka kwaba aribwo bunini kuruta ubundi bwose, bwikubye inshuro esheshatu ugereranije no kugabanuka kwa 0.4 Gt mu mwaka wa 2009 - byatewe n’ihungabana ry’imari ku isi - kandi bikubye kabiri inshuro zose hamwe ibyo byagabanijwe mbere kuva imperuka y'intambara ya kabiri y'isi yose.Kimwe na nyuma y’ibibazo byabanjirije iki, ariko, kongera imyuka ihumanya ikirere bishobora kuba binini kuruta kugabanuka, keretse niba umushoramari w’ishoramari wo kongera ubukungu wahariwe ibikorwa remezo by’ingufu bisukuye kandi bihamye.